20306cKinsey203060双碳文库&Company203060双碳文库In an evolving energy landscape,our Global Energy Perspective 2023 provides insights intolong-term trends that will shape the energy transition.203060Xsecurity,affordability,and industrial competitiveness are now critical focus points alongside sustainabilityThe outlook for the energy transition depends on multiple variables and interdependencies.Uncertainties in cost evolutions.speed of technological progress,and policy developments translate into a wide range of possible scenarios,particularlyregarding the outlook for fossil fuels.What is clear,however,is that the pathway to keep warming below1.5C looks increasingly challenging.The world isnonetheless making progress toward a net-zero future,with record growth in areas such as electric vehicle(EV)sales andrenewable energy.By 2040,we expect solar and wind together to contribute the largest share of the world's energy mix.Substantial investments will be needed to support the build-out of renewal energy-and to provide sufficient fossil fuelsto203060complement these sources.We expect total energy investments to increase from 1.5 trillion USD in 2021 to between 2 and 3.2trillion in 2040.While this represents a big increase,investment levels are likely to remain stable as a proportion of GDP.The question now is whether supply chains can keep up with the pace of the energy transition.Materials shortages andproduction bottlenecks-and even land availability-all threaten to slow momentum.These risks play out to varying degrees ineveryscenario we model in the latest edition of our Global Energy Perspective.060双碳As the world treads a fine line between energy security today and ensuring a livable planet for tomorrow,ourGlobal EnergyPerspective 2023 examines the changingenergypicture and provides insights into the longer-termtrends that will shape theworld's future energy systems.Wide-ranging scenarios point to an unclear path ahead203060Theenergytransition has gathered pace,but the path ahead is full of uncertaintyin everything from technology trends to geopolitical risk and consumermakers to address multiple objectives at once,such as meeting long-term goals for decarbonization as well as short-term expectations for economic●Our scenarios sketch a range of outcomes based on varying underlying assumptions-forexample,about the pace of technological process and the levelThese estimsinclude non-COemissions,building in assumptions on non-energyemissions from sectors like agriculture,forestry,and waste.To stay within the carbon budget necessary for the 1.5 pathway,a muchsteeper reduction in emissions would be required,particularly in the next tenye ars.203060双碳文库203060双碳文库203060双碳文库203060双碳2030607The McKinsey Global Energy Perspective 2023 explores five scenarios.Global CO2 emissions from combustion and industrial processes,1 GtCO2 per year3020201020306002010203020501990201020302050●Fading momentumCurrent trajectoryFading momentum in cost reductions,climate policies,Current trajectory of renewables cost decline continues,and public sentiment will lead to prolonged dominancehowever currently active policies remain insufficient toof fossil fuels.close gap to ambition.Temperature increase?Implied CO2 priceTemperature increase3$/tC02,2030-50$/tC02,2030-502.3℃<$60$60-$90(1.9-2.8)203060双爱碳库40203060双碳20库002030201020302050201020302050Further accelerationAchieved commitmentsFurther acceleration of transition driven by country-specific commitments,though financial and technologicalthrough purposeful policies;followers transition atrestraints remain.slower pace.公Implied CO2 price2Temperature increase3Implied CO2 price?Temperature increase$/C02,2030-50$/tC02,2030-501.9℃1.6C$70-$140(1.5-2.3)$130-$180203060双1.5°pathwayA1.5 pathway is adopted globally,Implied CO2 price2Temperature increase3driving rapid decarbonization$/tC02,2030-50investment and behavioral shifts.1.4℃$180+(1.1-17)60Includes process emissions from cement production,chemical production and refining,and negative emissions from applying CCUS.he marginal abatement associated with each scenario,averaged over the different regions andcountries in the world.Warming estimate is an indication of global rise in temperature by 2100 versus pre-industrial levels (range 17th to 83rd percentile),based on MAGICCv7.5.3 asused in IPCC AR6 given the respective energy and non-energy (eg,agdculture,deforestation)emission levels and assuming continuation of trends after 2050but no net-negative emissions.