Managing risk,enabling tradeApril 2025Atradius Energy OutlookHydrocarbon statesresilient to shiftingenergy mixTable of ContentsExecutive summary1.Energy mix:a new sense of realism11.1 Another record year21.2 Realism,expectations and hope1.3 Lower energy intensity1.4 Electrification taking off1.5 Phasing out fossil energy1.6 Government,investments and technology1.7 Not all lost,sense of realism needed62.Oil market outlook:steady as she goes82.1 Spare capacity helps keep markets resilient92.2 Demand foroil to peak and plateauin coming decade2.3 Oil supply is robust102.4 Steady baseline price outlook with high downside risk under NZEscenario3.Gas market outlook:fragile equilibrium123.1 Relative stabilisation of gas prices133.2 Gas demand peaks around 20303.3 Supply:Middle East expands its position43.4 Gas trade:LNG making further inroads3.5 Gas prices decline amid strong LNG growth154.Country risk:hydrocarbon states resilient to shifting energy mix 164.1 Fuel dependency hydrocarbon states is gradually declining174.2 Diversification of fiscal revenues is the biggest challenge4.3 Financial weaknesses make some countries vulnerable to oil and gas price shocks 184.4 Limited country risk impact in STEPS4.5 Fossil fuel suppliers of last resort4.6 Conclusioni